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Yesterday we looked at trends in BMV investing. My personal colours are nailed to the mast - play the waiting game until Spring/Summer 2009 when the institutional money rides back into property. This is what I said back in October:
OK, property might not going great guns on the capital appreciation front in the short term recession profits can be made.
House Price Forecasts
* Times: Five experts predict how much further prices will fall
When will the house price crash end and how far will prices fall?
Should buyers grab a bargain now, or wait another year, or even longer.
Times Money asked five experts for their predictions on how far prices
will fall before they reach rock bottom.
Martin Ellis (Halifax): -10% Jonathan Davis (Housepricecrash.co.uk):
-35% Yolande Barnes (Savills): -10% Nick Bate (Merril Lynch): -10%
Nicholas Leeming (Propertyfinder.co.uk): -10% from Houseprice Crash
* Is this really a crash or just a blip? from Rod Thomas
* Capital Economics forecasts
* UK house prices fell by 2.2% in October, bringing the average price back to the level in October 2005 at £168,031 from Housefund
* BBC News: Facing up to house price deja vu Faced with a nosedive in UK house prices, some homeowners are suggesting we learn from the past to prepare for the future.
Economy
* Economists predict that the interest rate cut from the Bank of England
could be too much too late, and warn that we may have further cuts some
even say taking the interest rate to zero.
*
I have a feeling that this recession is going to be deep and very long
and unlike what I have experienced in the last 37 years. from Investment Blog]
* Some thoughts on surviving the credit crunch, which is more about mindset than anything else.
* Deleveraging - a word we’re going to hear more of in the BMV world
* What’s next? Ask George Soros
Reaction to Banks
* Independent: When in doubt, blame the banks Dominic Lawson gives an alternative view to the Government and media obsession with dropping interest rates.from Houseprice Crash
* The banks have said that they are reviewing their Standard Variable
Rates (SVR) although it is highly unlikely that any of the banks will
announce if their decision on passing on the 1.5 percent rate cut today. HSBC reporting that they may not announce their decision until Monday.
* “I’m a homeowner, will I benefit from the cut? About 50 per cent of
existing mortgages are fixed rate deals which will not benefit from the
cut, 40 per cent are…” from the FT
* Yesterday’s sizeable and surprising cut in the bank base rate comes at
an interesting point in the housing market. Whether it becomes a
turning point, however, is dependent on various other factors,
including whether our semi-nationalised banks do the decent thing or
“do a Millwall” (as in the chant favoured by this club’s supporters:
“No one likes us, we don’t care”). from the Times Online
* The Anning family are among the millions of borrowers who immediately
benefited from yesterday’s one and a half percentage point Bank of
England base-rate cut. Anyone who has a tracker, or is due to take out
one, will notice a huge fall in repayments - £133 a month off an
average loan. from the Times Online
* Monetary Policy Committee chose not to act to alleviate what to some was an obvious storm gathering argues Damian Reece
* Investors will breathe a sigh of relief that the Bank of England
Monetary Policy is in fact in touch with the reality and I’m impressed
with the action they’ve taken rather than the usual wait and see. from Brett Wood YPC
* Finally Mervyn and the MPC woke up - The Base Rate cut was savage as we said (Stuart Law)
* Base rate cut to 3% (Juswant Rai)
* Interest rates were just cut by a massive 1.5%. I think most people
were expecting 0.5-1%. Great news for people on tracker [#%5#2]mortgages[/#%5#2]. 3%
is the lowest since 1955. (property investment project)
Future Rate Forecasts
* Bloomberg: Zero Rate World May Lie Ahead as King, Trichet Cut (Update1)
As major central banks slash interest rates with unexpected speed,
benchmark borrowing costs are now below core inflation for the first
time since the early 1980s, and policy makers are signaling they will
go deeper. from Houseprice Crash
We’ve looked at trends in the full time investor scene with Nick & Vanessa from 4 Walls and house price forecasts and rental trends in the credit crunch era.
Mortgage trends
* Lenders failing to pass on the rate cuts @ HouseLadder . Some say they won’t pass them on at all @ Property Investment Project.
* Interest cuts on the way? @ Property Tycoons
* The Death of No Money Down Deals??
* 5 Reasons why BMV investing will never be the same again by Graham Brown
Agent trends
* New breed of estate agent? Welcome the discount property shop @ Galiq
Trends in house prices
* Land Registry reports 8% fall in house prices @ LandReg. CEBR predicts further 25% fall @ Property Lettings
* Good news from the US: “In news that may interest overseas property buyers, a US economist has predicted that the end of the downturn in the market is approaching.” @ Hotproperty
* Not so good from Spain, though. “The Spanish property market seems to have gone from bad to worse. According to the latest news, more than 900,000 new homes are still unsold this year. This is a very large figure, too worrying to ignore and even Spain’s prime minister Zapatero warned that the nation’s banks will not escape this situation unscathed.” @ Overseas property mall
* Negative equity fears affect 3 million @ Homemove
* Bulgarian bubble bursts
Trends in investor sentiment
* A review of the last Property Investor Show @ Summit Finance
* “Redrow one of the UK’s largest housebuilders has sold just 38 homes a week over the last eight weeks.” - Market “fragile” warns developer Redrow @ Telegraph
* Knight Frank market report @ Overseas property investor
Advice
* 5 Things You can do Monday Morning to Survive the Coming Financial Meltdown by Graham Brown, John Lee, Phil Martin, Ruban Selvanayagam and Gavin Williamson
* The property investors back plan @ Property Hawk
* “The media would have you believe that ‘THE MARKET’ fell by a X percent last month and it has fallen by X percent since this time last year. So what does that actually mean? It means that those who still have property for sale on the market and must sell are willing to slash prices, and those who would sell in the ideal world but are not that concerned if they don’t, are simply staying put. So if only 5 or 10% are in a position that they must sell, are they speaking for the entire market? The media would have you believe so.” Key points of today’s property market @ Andy Shaw
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Radio Love Property Breakfast Show’s Graham Brown interviews Nick Tadd and Vanessa Warwick - directors of the property networking and investment service 4 Walls and a Ceiling .
From being successful producers and celebrities in the media industry (Nick runs his own TV production company and Vanessa was a presenter on MTV ) Nick and Vanessa are accomplished full time property investors.
Nick and Vanessa share their insights in this interview into why they got involved in property, their success secrets and explode some of the myths associated with full time & armchair investing.
Do you run a successful property networking event? If so, check out this video
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